For a large proportion of people, it would be uncertainty! Back in March 2017 the two-year notice of withdrawal was delivered but now as we get towards the end of October 2018 there is no clarity on what the UK's relationship with the EU will be (if any at all) after March 2019.
There are many options for the UK, but it is up for debate whether this is a good or a bad thing. However, these are arguably the most likely and risk free options:
- Like Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein the UK could become part of the European Economic Area which would mean little change to free movement of goods, services, people and capital as well as maintaining most of our domestic law that's in place currently.
- The UK could join Switzerland in becoming part of the European Free Trade Area allowing us to negotiate different agreements on free movement under less EU legislation.
- Similarly, the UK could enter a single free trade agreement with all of the EU (like Canada) or an agreement slightly more complex called a World Trade Organisation relationship which the US and China have currently.
The two-year withdrawal notice has allowed the UK to plan for a non-eventful transition on the day we leave the EU as a member state. They have attempted to do this with legislation more commonly known as the Great Repeat Bill. It's aims are:
- Repeal the 1972 European Communities Act meaning EU law is no longer national law in the UK but copy all existing EU legislation into domestic UK law.
- To give ministers power to create replacement legislation aiming to correct technical problems as EU law is put onto the statute book.
The purpose behind the Great Repeat Bill is to prevent uncertainty and ensure business can forecast for the next five years or so like they would if Brexit wasn't happening. However, that is easier said than done as the bill's pass-through parliament is proving to be long-drawn-out largely due to the amount of UK legislation that is tied to EU law as well as UK law that implements EU law.
Another consequence of the bill is allowing the European Court of Justice to have the same status of the Supreme Court thus meaning judgements can potentially be overturned. Consequently, EU and UK law can smoothly diverge apart from the debate surrounding the role of the European Court of Justice in the UK during the likely extended transitional period.
Moreover, the government is also presenting two other bills: The Trade Bill and The Customs Bill. The former allows the UK to:
Transition trade agreements that implement existing EU trade agreements.
Establish the powers needed for the UK to implement the agreement on government procurement as an independent member rather than as part of the EU.
Create a new UK independent body that defends UK businesses against unfair trade practises.
Ensure the UK government has the legal power to gather and share trade information.
The latter, The Customs Bill, will seek to ensure the UK retains the ability to implement VAT, customs and excise duties once the UK has left the Customs Union of the EU. The White Paper suggests a transitional period whereby the UK and EU would apply a time-limited customs union based of shared external tariffs but without customs processes and duties. This bill will allow for divergence and changes to be made if necessary but to try and remove uncertainty and achieve continuity the customs legislation will remain largely unchanged as it's based on existing EU rules.
Beginning of Brexit Technical Notices
On the 13th September the government released guidance with technical notices on how to prepare for a no-deal Brexit (slightly worrying for some). However, the notices covered a lot of subjects:
- Applying for EU funded programmes
- Driving and transport
- Farming
- Importing and exporting
- Handling civil legal cases
- Labelling products and their safety
- Meeting business regulations
- Money and tax
- Personal data and consumer rights
- Environmental protection
- Regulating energy
- Travelling between the UK and EU
- Workplace rights
- Studying in the UK/EU
- Seafaring
- State aid
European Commission Notice to Stakeholders
The commission has released a notice to all stakeholders that outlines many consequences in relation to EU company law. One of the main highlights of this notice is the potential issues with UK companies that are operating throughout the EU and how they will deal with them once EU law no longer applies to them. The main concern is that companies will become third country companies allowing member states to not recognise their limited liability and them as a legal personality. This is subject to the rules on branches of third country companies, the applicable national or international rules/treaties and the fact that the company law form of a European Company (SE) will no longer be available in the UK.